With the new season upon us, it’s time to speculate what will happen once it counts starting on Monday. I’m not one to make predictions. Most baseball magazines are never correct although they may get it close from time to time. My focus, of course, is on the Mets. After last season’s historic collapse, I don’t know what to think. I hate to beat a dead horse but I still cannot get over the fact the Mets blew their chance of making it to the post season. It could have been two consecutive division titles, something that never happened or will ever happen in the history of Shea Stadium. The best the Mets can do now is to win back to back in the closing season at Shea and the opening season in Citi Field—a tall order, no doubt.

First off I’m not going to say “provided there are no injuries” because that applies to every team in any sport. Why not say provided the earth doesn’t leave its orbit and crash into the sun. The point is anything can happen. We hope it doesn’t and everyone stays healthy.

As far as this season goes, the Mets should have one of the best starting pitching staffs in the National League if not the Major Leagues. The only question is the 5th starter which will likely be Orlando Hernandez regardless of his horrible spring. One of these days, Mr. Pelfrey will get some guts and break into that starting rotation. I thought that would have happened this year but Pelfrey needs more time at triple A. Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez, and John Maine should be solid. Santana is, well…Santana. Pedro is healthy and appears focused on having an outstanding season. Maine has been lights out this spring. He’s in the best shape of his life and wants to be an ace. Perez has enough nasty stuff to perhaps be the first Mets pitcher to ever throw a no-hitter. Perez’s chief enemy is his ability to stay focused. The bullpen will be better too, especially when they get a healthy Duaner Sanchez back. Aaron Heilman, the Teflon reliever, has pitched extremely well this spring.

One of Omar Minaya’s strengths is his ability to construct a good bench. This season appears to be no exception. Endy Chavez, Marlon Anderson, and Damion Easley once again headline the subs. All are very good hitters and Chavez is simply one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball. Ramon Castro is arguably the best backup catcher in baseball. He’s more than adequate defensively and has some power to boot. Unfortunately he will start the season on the disabled list so Raul Casanova will start the season as the backup. Casanova has shown some pop in his bat during the spring too. The other bench spot will be either Brady Clark or Fernando Tatis with a nod toward the latter. Tatis is an interesting case. He hit 34 home runs in 1999 then suffered a series of injuries that forced him out of baseball for 2 years. Last year he played in New Orleans and appeared healthy. The Mets are intrigued by Tatis because he has the ability to play all infield positions and the outfield. If he makes the club, Tatis may get some time at first base if Delgado struggles.

The area that concerns me the most is the bottom of the starting order. The Mets lineup should be Jose Reyes, SS; Luis Castillo, 2B; David Wright, 3B; Carlos Beltran, CF; Carlos Delgado, 1B, Angel Pagan, LF; Ryan Church, RF, and Brian Schneider, C. One through four is solid. Then things get iffy. Carlos Delgado had a bad season last year. He got off to a slow start in ’07 and never really got it going until late in the year then injured his hip. To add insult to injury, on the last day of the season he broke his wrist. This spring Delgado needed a shot of Cortisone for that same hip again. Is this just a rash of bad luck or is Delgado’s ability alluding him. Some scouts suggest he is definitely descending the hill. He can no longer get around on the inside fast ball. Pitchers know this and are busting him high and tight. Carlos is going to have to adjust and hit the ball the other way more consistently. Even this spring it seems in many at bats he is grounding into the shift. So far, and I know it’s only spring, Delgado has just one home run. Without Delgado being productive, the Mets offense has a huge hole in it.

Then we get to the player of spring training, Angel Pagan. It should have been Moises Alou in left but surprise, he’s disabled. Alou is recovering from a hernia operation. He vows to be back better than ever. I believe his dedication, it’s his 41 year old body that scares me. Never the less without his right handed bat to support the middle of the order, Pagan will be asked to fill some big shoes. Angel has had a great spring. It’s just a little much to assume it will continue into the regular season.

The next two guys, Church and Schneider, came to the Mets from Washington for Lastings Milledge. I hope this isn’t a deal Omar regrets. The Mets upgraded defensively. Church is a much better right fielder than Milledge and Schneider is a much better defensive catcher than Lo Duca. But hitting is a different story. Schneider is a weak hitting catcher, one not as noticeable if Delgado and Alou were healthy. Church isn’t a bad left handed hitter but struggles against left handed pitching. Minaya has tried to deal for a right handed outfielder like Xavier Nady but he is unwilling to part with more young pitchers therefore an import is unlikely.

The Mets will have better pitching and defense than last year. But with the question marks at the bottom of the lineup, they will have to win a lot of low scoring games. That will put pressure on the pitchers. Last year, the pitching got worn out partly because the starters did not go long enough in games. But another reason was they often did not get good run support. That part of the equation could occur again.

With these questions, I do not see the Mets running away and hiding as they did in 2006. Also the competition in the National League East will be difficult. You have to assume the defending division champion Phillies (boy that pains me to say that) will be in the thick of it again. There pitching will not be as good as the Mets but their offense could be far superior. The Phillies are counting on Brad Lidge (on the 15 day DL) to be their closer. Enough said.

Washington will be improved, especially with Milledge playing every day. Manny Acta is a fine manager and I can see him motivating his team to at least be very pesky. Forget Florida, once again they lost too many players and even though they have some young talent, I can’t see them competing.

So of the three teams left, Mets, Phillies, and Braves, who will come out on top? It’s hard to know the answer and as stated above, I’m not much into predictions. But analyzing all three teams gives us a clue as to the pluses and weakness of each team. The Mets should have the best pitching of the three teams. Santana, Martinez, Perez, and Maine are a formidable lineup. And like him or not, Billy Wagner is the best closer of the lot. But don’t count out Rafael Soriano of the Braves who struck out 247 batters last year. He will be the Braves closer this season despite some discomfort above his pitching elbow earlier in the spring. The Braves also have former Met lefthander Royce Ring in the bullpen. Omar, in my opinion, made a mistake in giving up on this kid. What the Mets got in return was not much. The Braves also have a starting staff of Tim Hudson, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Mike Hampton, and impressive rookie Jair Jurryens. The staff is a bit old and adding Glavine did nothing to dissuade from that. If Hampton stays healthy and Glavine and Smoltz don’t grow old, the Braves could have a very good staff. However, I still give the nod to the Mets.

The Phillies pitching is the weakest of the three teams. With the acquisition of Lidge, Brett Myers returns as the number one pitcher followed by Cole Hamels. Cole is a fine pitcher and has the stuff to be an ace so the Phills have a very good 1-2 punch. But then it gets shaky. They are followed by Chad Durbin who some Phillies fans have already nicknamed Hanging Chad. Jamie Moyer’s number is 50 or is that his age? Like Tom Glavine however, Moyers is still fairly crafty. The Phillies signed Kris Benson but, as if you couldn’t guess, Benson is still rehabbing his shoulder and may not be ready till June. Adam Eaton may not even be on the starting staff so the Phillies may be hurting for starters after Myers and Coles. To summarize, in pitching, I give the Mets a first place vote with the Braves a close second and the Phillies third.

Offensively it’s not hard to pick Philadelphia first. With Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and MVP Jimmy Rollins, the case can be made that this is baseball’s best infield even with a mediocre third baseman in Pedro Feliz. Certainly David Wright, Jose Reyes, Luis Castillo and Carlos Delgado could be almost as good but that’s up to Delgado. If he struggles even with Wright and Reyes having their normal seasons, they won’t match the Phillies production. The Phillies did lose Aaron Rowand and that will hurt them somewhat.

The Braves lost Andruw Jones to free agency but brought in Mark Kotsay who’s had a fine spring. They still have Chipper Jones, Jeff Francoeur, Matt Diaz, and Brian McCann, all fine hitters. They also have shortstop prospect Yunel Escobar who can flat out hit. Plus the Braves have the second best first baseman of the three teams in Mark Texiera. In rating the offense, I go with the Phillies and Braves followed by the Mets. Sorry but I do not feel very confident from what I saw from New York hitters this spring.

Defensively I give the Mets a slight edge over the Braves. The Mets with the acquisition of Brian Schneider are the strongest up the middle with Reyes, Castillo, and gold glove center fielder Carlos Beltran. But McCann, Kelly Johnson, Escobar, and Kotsay aren’t bad either. The loss of Jones in center puts the Braves just behind the Mets however. The Phillies have never been a team with good defensive skills. Rollins and Utley are fine. They lost a big defensive guy when Rowand took the money and went out west.

Breaking down the three teams in the three categories I see these rankings –

Let’s look at one last category—managers. In my mind, there is no better manager than Bobby Cox. I don’t know what his secret is but his teams go the nth degree for him. He instills a sense of team unity that is unparalleled by any other manager. You wouldn’t get that impression from Charlie Manual who almost had a fist fight with a reporter last season. However, his players rallied around him and were the best team in the National League over the second half of 2007. Willie Randolph’s team collapsed with 17 games left to play and with a 7 game lead. Of the three manager’s, Willie’s the one on the hot seat. Last season, the Mets did not seem to be a team united as they were in ’05 and ’06. There were complaints in the way he handled the bullpen. And perhaps his stoic approach in the face of disaster led to his detriment. One thing is clear, if winning the division comes down to the manager, the Braves have the clear edge.

Suffice it to say, any one of these three teams has the capability of making the post season. And in the era of the wild card, two of the three may. But baseball is a funny game as last September demonstrated, although who’s laughing. With all the analysis it’s still very hard to know who will come out ahead. That’s why they play…cliché, cliché, cliché… Perhaps next October we can look back at my analysis and have a good laugh as the Marlins sip champagne.