From everything we have read, the Mets will likely have a miserable season in 2007 because they did not land Barry Zito.  Coming off a 97 win season and a divisional championship, the so called experts are predicting doom and gloom for the Mets because their rotation seems to be such a mess, or is it?

As it stands today, January 2, the Mets rotation looks like this: Glavine, Hernandez, Main, Perez, and Pelfrey or Humber, or Williams, or a pitcher to be named later.  Of course Pedro Martinez is healing from his calf injury and more importantly his rotator surgery.  And from all reports Pedro should be ready to go by July or August.  The criticism against the starting staff is that Glavine will be okay but he’s not getting any younger.  Hernandez is also aging and is vulnerable to injury. And of course the rest of the staff is a bunch of youngsters and although talented how can we expect them all to do well as regulars in the starting rotation.  Had Zito been signed, everyone would have felt better knowing there’s a young starter on the team with a track record of never getting hurt and pitching 200 innings every season. 

I don’t blame the Mets one bit for not trying to trump the Giants with their offer.  San Francisco took a big gamble giving out a contract like that.  The Mets would have gone 5 years and given Zito the money he wanted.  They refused to go beyond the 5 years though because their analysis correctly indicated that these contracts never work out.  Pitchers are so vulnerable to injury or just plain losing the magic they may have had earlier in their careers.  Just look at the two other biggest pitching contracts prior to Zito’s, Mike Hampton and Kevin Brown.  Hampton is with his third team now since signing with Colorado and he missed all of 2006 because of elbow surgery.  He’s do back with the Braves this spring.  Brown also struggled mightily never living up to the expectations set up by his huge contract.  The Mets were correct on this one and believe me; I would have loved for the Mets to have gotten Zito. 

Is the criticism in regards to Glavine and Hernandez fair?  Any time a team with the aspirations of the Mets head into a season with two starters over 40, there should be some concern.  In the case of Glavine however, the concern should not be as great.  Glavine is a crafty pitcher who keeps himself in excellent shape.  He does not rely on power stuff to get him out of jams.  He’s a smart pitcher who is always aware of the game situation.  Plus he goes into next season with built in incentive.  He is just 10 wins shy of 300 for his career.  Tom is going to the Hall of Fame regardless but he wants that 300th win and with the Mets lineup, he has a great shot at getting it this year.  Hernandez is a different case though. No one really knows how old he is.  He’s listed at 38 but most likely he is over 40.  He still had great stuff last year and two years ago he pitched effectively in helping the White Sox win a world championship.  The problem with El-Duque however is his ability to stay healthy.  He tore a calf muscle on the day after the regular season just jogging in the outfield and was unavailable for the NLDS and NLCS.  He would have started game one of the World Series if the Mets had made it.  I think it’s fair to say that El-Duque will give the Mets great effort.  He definitely wanted to come back and prove his value.  I have no doubt he’ll help the Mets it’s just unclear as to how reliable he will be. 

The critical thinking when it comes to the young pitchers is their lack of experience.  Well excuse me but there was a time when Zito, Mulder, and Hudson, not to mention Seaver, Koosman, Matlack and a guy named Gooden had no experience either.  At some point all pitchers have little or no experience.  That changes when the young pitchers get experience.  And there is no better time for these young guys to get that experience like this year.  John Maine and Oliver Perez both pitched exceptional in the playoffs and they did it under adverse conditions.  They were not asked to be back end guys they were pushed to the front and given tremendous responsibility and they responded tremendously.  John Maine was given the ball to start the NLDS.  Oliver Perez was asked to stop the Cardinals before they could take a commanding 3 games to 1 lead in the NLCS.  Main was given the ball again in game 6 of the NLCS to prevent elimination.  In game 7 Perez was given the responsibility of trying to nail down the clincher.  Neither pitcher failed. Perez gave up just one earned run in game 7 and left after 6 innings with the game tied.  Pitching in those pressure packed games in front of 56,000 people on the biggest baseball stage in the world must account for something.  At the very least these pitchers have the guts to compete and both of them are deserving of a starting role.

Oliver Perez has the stuff to be a Barry Zito and perhaps even better.  Zito does not have the fast ball that Perez has and Perez has shown in the past that he can be a dominating pitcher, perhaps an ace of the staff type of pitcher.  If Peterson can continue his magic and get Perez to be more consistent, the Mets may very well have something special here. 

Pelfrey or perhaps Humber could be the fifth starter this season.  Everyone feels that Pelfrey will be a fine major league pitcher and like Perez has the stuff to someday be a reliable starter.  Even more so than Perez, Pelfrey has shown tremendous poise and an insatiable appetite to learn his craft.  Philip Humber, Dave Williams, Alay Soler (don’t forget him), Jon Adkins, Adam Bostick, and Jason Vargas will also compete for a starting role come spring training.  Certainly one of these pitchers will fill Darren Oliver’s role as long man in the bullpen.  The point here is that the Mets have a lot of talented young arms who will compete for a position on the staff.  It’s much too early to assume the worst.  Of course these guys could fail and the Mets will be clamoring for starters by mid season but that could be said of any pitching staff.  The 1987 Mets went into the season having added David Cone to the rotation.  Everyone picked the Mets to repeat.  Injuries hurt that pitching staff all year in addition to Doc Gooden going to drug rehab so the best laid plans…

If the Mets do not make a move for another starter which seems more difficult than ever now, it is likely that the Phillies not the Mets will be favored to win the east.  So be it, actually I would prefer that the Mets aren’t the favorite, who needs all that unnecessary pressure.  Look, even had the Mets acquired Zito, perhaps they would have been declared the favorite but it still was no guarantee the Mets would return to the post season.  That’s why they play all those games.   And another thing, the Mets came fast last year, no one expected them to get as far as they did.  They are ahead of schedule.  Omar has a plan and it likely includes building a pitching staff for the future that includes many of the youngsters he has acquired.  Unfortunately because of last year’s success, many Mets fans will not be happy unless the Mets win it all or at least get to the World Series.  That’s unfortunate because all you can hope for is that the Mets are able to compete and get back to the post season. Once there you can worry about getting to the World Series.  It’s amazing how in New York the success of one season is followed with so much pessimism the next.  But have faith; the organization is on the right track.  The Mets will be good but it’s a long way from the 2nd of January to the World Series 2007.