The races in the American League are now pretty much over.  With Minnesota’s win last night, the White Sox have been officially eliminated ending their one year World Series reign.  The only thing needing to be ironed out in the junior circuit is which of the two clubs in the Central, Tigers and Twins, will be wild card and division champ, the Western Division crown has yet to be decided but with a magic number of two, Oakland will eventually get it done. Also home field advantage is yet to be decided. The Yankees and Tigers both have 94 wins, the Twins have 93 and Oakland has 90.  Pretty amazing that one league features four teams with 90wins. The LA Angels of Anaheim has an outside shot at 90 wins as well. 

Things are drastically different in the National League.  So far the only sure bet is the Mets who clinched a week ago.  They will open their post season next Tuesday or Wednesday at Shea Stadium, time and team they play is yet to be determined.  The Mets who have clinched the best record in the NL will have home field advantage in the NLDS and NLCS if they get that far.  Because of their best record, the Mets will either face the wild card if that team is not the Phillies or the division winner of the Central or West with the weaker record.  If the season ended today, the Phillies and the Dodgers would have to play a one game playoff to determine the wild card and the Cardinals and Padres would be the champions of their respective divisions. 

The Mets possible opponents in the NLDS are the Astros, Cardinals, Dodgers, or Padres.  Houston trails the wild card leading Dodgers and Phillies by four games so it is unlikely the Mets would face the Astros as the wild card.  However, Houston could actually overtake St. Louis and win the Central Division.  If Philadelphia wins the wild card then the Mets could conceivable play the Astros in the first round. There have been many comparisons with the current Mets club to the 86’ edition so why not play Houston.  Personally I don’t like this scenario because the Astros are hot right now having won six in a row and they have those top three guys in the rotation that could give the Mets hitters fits.  A situation more beneficial to the Mets would have Philadelphia win the wild card and St. Louis win the division.  If the Cardinals record were to remain worse than the winner of the West then the Cardinals would open up against the Mets.

If San Diego, who is also hot right now winning eight of their last ten, hold on to win and the
Dodgers are the wild card, then it doesn’t matter what happens in the Central. In this scenario the

Mets would face the Dodgers in game one next Wednesday.  Could the Mets face the Padres and

Mike Piazza in the first round?  Sure, there is a couple of ways that could happen.  If the

Dodgers overtake the Padres in the last six games, then the Padres could be the wild card.  Or

St. Louis could get hot and win their division with a better record than the Padres who wins the West

and Philadelphia wins the wild card.  Then the Mets would play the Padres. There are so many possibilities

that it makes your head spin.  The following table outlines the most likely scenarios when

you consider the standings today.

Since the Astros are four games out in the wild card race, I only included them as a division champion since currently they are only 2.5 games behind the slumping Cardinals.

The difficulty for the Mets here is that they may not really know who they play until the very last minute. This could have some impact on getting their rotation set.  After all do the Mets play on Tuesday or Wednesday?  How do they know how much time to rest their starter for game one?  It’s possible that the NL wild card may require a one game play in game like the one the Mets played in 1999.  Again, since one of those teams would very likely be the Phillies, the Mets on Monday would still not know when and who they play.

It’s all very interesting but the one thing the Mets can and must do is to get ready.  I’m sorry but I do not like what I am seeing on the field right now.  The games don’t matter, that’s true. But the Mets are having poor at bats, their pitching is faltering and even their defense looks flat. This is not a good time to be going through a team slump especially when you consider that the other teams are fighting and scratching for a playoff berth and will carry momentum into the first round.  Those teams have everything to gain and nothing to lose.  They will play footloose and fancy free while the pressure will squarely be on the Mets because on paper they should get to the World Series.  The Mets better wake up or it really won’t matter who they play.  The Mets need to get back the “eye of the tiger” or this great season of theirs could end up taking and abrupt end after one round.

Extra Innings:  The Mets finished their home season with a record of 50 and 31. It’s the ninth time in team history they have won fifty or more games at Shea.  The bad news is that they won only three of the eight games on this last home stand.  This is a bit disappointing considering the Mets played a failing Marlins team and the lowly Nats. 

The 2006 Mets will not join the ’69, ’86, and ’88 teams who have won 100 or more games in team history.  That was assured last night as the Mets slept through their 63rd loss of the year.

The Mets have now lost 10 of their last 15 games.  They have gone from leading the division at 16.5 games down to 11.  Good thing it no longer matters but it certainly is a sign that the Phillies are now the hottest team in the East.  Philadelphia was below .500 for most of the year but since August 1st they have the best record in the East at 32 and 19.  By contrast the Mets record over that span is 30 and 21, a two game difference.

The Mets are in the midst of their worst month of the long campaign.  With six games left in the season the Mets are now 11 and 13 in September.  They have not had a losing month all season.  There worst month prior to September was June with a record of  15 and 12.  Their best month was in August.  That month the Mets won 19 and lost 9.  

The Mets head to Turner Field for three.  What a place for them to try and wake from the slumber.  However the Mets have played very well there this year having won 5 of 6 played.  There will be no drama as the Braves have already been eliminated from any playoff hopes.  You can bet the young Braves will be in there to prove something to the Mets.