Today is the day that the Mets will not exercise their option on Tom Glavine.  After 11:00PM this evening Glavine will become a free agent eligible to sign with any team.  Of course the only team he is considering playing for next year is either the Mets or the Atlanta Braves.  The Mets of course could put the hammer down, pick up his option then Glavine would have no choice but to pitch for New York.  However the Mets and Glavine have a handshake agreement that neither Tom nor the club would pick up their respected options.  The Mets view Glavine as a class act and want to give him every opportunity to do what is best for himself and his family.  Also if the Mets exercise their option Glavine would cost the club 14 million for one year.  Glavine also has an incentive clause that if he makes the All Star team, an additional 2 million will be earned.  So by picking up his option, the Mets potentially could be paying 16 million for one year to a pitcher who is 41 years old.  And although Glavine pitched well having won 15 games last season, it’s not like we’re talking about Sandy Koufax in his prime. 

The Mets would much prefer to bring back Glavine at a more reasonable price, say 11 or 12 million for one year with maybe an option for a second year.  Glavine’s incentive is to give himself the possibility of reuniting with the Braves, the team where Glavine spent his entire career before joining the Mets.  Tom’s family lives in Atlanta so he would be able to be with them more often during the long season.  However once Glavine’s kids are out of school the family spends the summer in the New York area.  Never the less, the Glavine’s are talking it over in terms of where they want to be in ’07.  The odds favor Tom coming back to the Mets but the longer this drags out, and drag it has, you get the feeling that the Mets will be without Tom Glavine next year.

Glavine has not even talked to the Braves yet since he is not a free agent so it is unclear if the Braves can give Tom what he would want.  The Mets could easily top the Braves in terms of money and they would most likely be willing to give Glavine a no-trade clause, something the Braves do not do.  No one on the current Braves team has a no-trade clause.  Glavine does not want to sign with the Braves and then find himself on the west coast come the trade deadline in July.  By the Mets not exercising their option, Glavine automatically will receive 3 million dollars from the Mets.  If the Braves were to offer Glavine say around 8 or 9 million then the money would be very close to what the Mets would offer, the only sticking point being the absence of the no-trade clause. 

I think there is more going on here than just the Glavine’s family situation, money, and no-trade clauses.  I honestly think Tom is still a Brave at heart and would like to finish his career winning his 300th game for the team he came up with.  There is nothing wrong with that, and I think the Mets realize it too.  To prove the point that the Mets know there is a good chance Glavine won’t be back, just look at what the Mets have done this past week.  They resigned Jose Valentin and Orlando Hernandez.  They have signed Darren Easily most likely to replace Chris Woodward off the bench.  They are on the verge of signing Moises Alou to play left at a reasonable 8 or 9 million for one year.  All of these deals economically have benefited the Mets, none have broken the bank.  We heard earlier perhaps the Mets would go after free agent Julio Lugo or Adam Kennedy to play second.  There have been hints of Manny once again.  These deals would have cost the Mets a lot more money but it doesn’t appear they are moving in this direction; they seem to be clearing salary for something else.

Could it be because the Mets feel there is a very good chance they will lose Glavine?  If so is the money saved on free agents to play every day positions being put aside for a run at Barry Zito.  I think this is very likely the case.  Omar knows that he must improve the starting pitching.  True, Minaya’s has a lot of young arms to fill the rotation but the Mets do not want to go into the season without some veteran leadership.  Although Minaya has claimed he is not willing to pay 100 million for Zito, he may have to and some of these other conservative moves may be setting up the inevitable over payment.  You have to assume if the money is there Barry will want to join the Mets.  Like with Oakland, he would be coming to a team with playoff expectations, pitching in a pitcher friendly National League in a pitching friendly park, he would be reunited with pitching coach, Rick Peterson, and he would be here to enjoy the benefits of a new stadium.  Let’s face it, Zito is a lot younger than Glavine and has the ability to be a number one starter moving to the National League.  It’s a move I prefer.  It makes me nervous to give a pitcher over 40 like Glavine 12 million dollars for one year.  It’s going to take some huge dollars to land Zito, especially since his agent is Scott Boras. It appears the Mets are preparing to do just that.

As Zito as the ace of the staff, the rotation would most likely also include Orlando Hernandez, John Main, Mike Pelfrey, and Oliver Perez.  You never know, there are also Phillip Humber, Brian Bannister, and even Alay Soler on the farm.  There is also talk of Freddie Garcia and Javier Vasquez from the White Sox and now that the Mets appeared to have landed Alou in left and have Ben Johnson also, perhaps Lastings Milledge will be used in a trade to acquire front line pitching.  It’s still early but things will start to happen as Glavine makes his decision and the winter meetings approach beginning on December 4th.

To all, have a wonderful Thanksgiving and of course Let’s Go Mets. 

Extra Innings:

As a reminder, Mets Hot Stove airs tonight live at 6:30PM.  Tonight’s show will feature Omar Minaya so I will be listening “between the lines” very carefully.  Also this coming Friday, there is a ton on Mets related programming on SNY.  Look for the link on the left side of this page for all SNY Mets related broadcasts all off season long.