I could not believe the discussion I heard on WFAN the other day. Mike Francesa was ranting on about how the Mets were an 84 win team because there were just too many question marks.
I don't necessarily disagree that there are question marks. I don't even necessarily disagree with the fact the Mets could win only 84 games. However, I really think they will win more. But how can we really know? There is so much to be played out. What I find so disturbing about such rants is how Mike can feel so sure of himself when it comes to questions relating to the Mets, yet similar questions regarding the Yankees are non existent.
First of all, what team does not have question marks in spring training? What club is the pencil-it-in World Champion for 2009? Is it the Mets, Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, Angels, or Rays? I don't know. Do you?
You gage a teams chances on the talent they have on the field. Talent wise, I think the Mets fair much better than an 84 win team. That doesn't mean they will win more than 84 games, it means they should. Mike took the glass is half empty approach with the Mets' starting pitching, left field, and second base.
Francesa pointed out John Maine is coming off of surgery. True but his shoulder spur was repaired and so far, he feels great and is showing no ill effects. He is already throwing harder than he did last September. Santana had his knee scoped but is on track and feels fine. Francesa had no argument for Santana but inferred you can't expect Mike Pelfrey to have a great season just because he appeared to turn the corner last year. Why not? Scouts have said all along the pitcher we saw last season was the one drafted in the first round out of Wichita State. How come Joba Chamberlain's body of work is not met with the same level of skepticism and incredulity? Is it because he's a Yankee?
Mike questioned the left field situation with a platoon of Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis (this was before Jerry Manuel indicated Murphy could be the every day left fielder). There isn't a player in Mets camp that works harder at hitting than Daniel Murphy. He has already shown a natural ability to swing the bat at a maturity beyond his years. Plus all winter Murphy worked long hours in Florida shagging fly balls to prepare himself for left field. Give the kid a chance. At some point the stars of today were the rookies of yesterday. Not every star player in baseball was a sure fire can't miss prospect.
Another easy target is Luis Castillo. Hey, if I could snap my fingers and switch Castillo with Orlando Hudson I would do it. But what about the fact that prior to last season, Castillo was an all star second baseman? Do we discount that Luis went to Minaya after the season and begged not to be traded, that he realized he was out of shape and vowed to work hard over the winter. He lost 17 pounds and his knees appear to be pain free. He hates losing and seems determined to make amens. Does he not even get a chance?
In one breath, Francesa says you can't look at last year's performances and expect them to be automatic again this season. But yet, that's what he does when he points out all the negatives. You can't have it both ways. That's why I say you must base a prediction on talent and injuries. Right now, the Mets have talent with no injuries other than Tim Redding who has been slowed from surgery last November on his toe.
In regards to Mike's take on the Yanks, apparently 161 million dollars for CC Sabathia doesn't raise a question mark. After all, CC is the most fit of any pitcher I have ever seen. Don't you think so too? Add in another 65 million for A.J. Burnett, the poster boy for the disabled list. Can you say Carl Pavano? Well, he's not that bad but Burnett has certainly had his share of injuries.
Now CC is a great pitcher and so is Burnett. But if you are going to assume the Mets have questions surrounding their pitching staff, how can you not apply the same logic to the Yankees who also have a pitcher coming off injuries in Chien-Ming Wang.
This time of year every team has questions. But based on talent alone, the Mets have to be considered one of the clubs with an excellent chance of reaching the post season. Notice I did not say win the World Series. That's because I am a firm believer in the goal being to make the playoffs. I do not subscribe to the theory that winning the World Series is all that matters. To me, that's an exercise in futility. With eight teams making the tournament, as I like to think of the post season, anything can happen. The Mets were the better team in '06 but lost to the Cardinals, a team just above .500. The Yankees were an out away in '04 then collapsed and lost four in a row to the Red Sox. Unfortunately the World Series has become a battle between who survives the first two rounds of the playoffs, not necessarily the two best teams.
I don't see the Mets through rose colored glasses. Nor do I see them as gloomy as Mike Francesa and Joe Benigno might. What impresses me so far this spring about the Mets is not their talent, which they have plenty of. I see a confidence that I have not seen in a while. It's confidence without the cockiness from the last couple of seasons. In the long run, the Phillies winning the World Series last season might turn out to be the best medicine for the Mets.
