Just because I said this race would go down to the wire doesn’t mean I wouldn’t have preferred it to be over by now.

Another Mets loss, another Phillies win, and the division title appears to be light years away. Even the Mets wild card lead has now been reduced to a mere one game. But you can read all those stats anywhere. What I want to focus on is this idea of another collapse.

A collapse, by definition, is a catastrophic occurrence that defies the odds and generally is met with disbelief. A bridge falling down is a good example. When used euphemistically like in baseball, the word requires similar traits. For example, last season when the Mets held first place for the majority of the season, then at one point led by seven games with 17 to play, most felt the division title would be attained for a second straight year. Based on history, the odds were totally against the Mets not winning. What followed was so shocking and rare that the only word to describe what had happened to the Mets lead in the division was a collapse.

Can the traits I have outlined for a collapse really apply to the 2008 Mets? The Mets were not in control of first place for most of the season. The Mets really have had two very good months that have salvaged what looked to be a miserable season back in mid June. And give the Mets credit. They did take control of first place for a couple of brief periods. The most they led by was 3.5 games and ironically that was with 17 to play. But would anyone really be shocked if the Mets don’t make the playoffs?

The Mets have blown leads 29 times this season. They have had 16 blown saves since July 1st. The common trait when compared to last season is the bullpen which is actually worse this year. Last season, some Mets starters were also responsible for the collapse. Last night withstanding, the starters have done a fine job.

Some in the media, like the insufferable Mike Francesa, continue to also blame Wright, Reyes, and Beltran for the Mets woes. Mike, where would the Mets be without these three players? There is no better centerfielder in baseball right now then Carlos Beltran. David Wright may be criticized for leaving men on base with two outs but he is having his best offensive season of his career and will likely win the gold glove again. Francesa said a couple of years ago that Wright would ultimately have to move to first because of his poor defense—this from a guy who proclaims to know more about baseball than any other sport.

Jose Reyes has also had a wonderful year. I know at times he struggles and his understanding of the strike zone could use some work. But he has made tremendous strides this year and who is better defensively.

The problem is not the offense, it never was. A winning team has got to be able to win close games. Good offenses are often shut down by good pitching. The Cubs are having a tremendous season because, like the 2006 Mets, they are knocking in runs with two outs all the time. That does not always happen and it is not the only reason why a team will succeed. The Cubs have scored more runs than anyone in the National League. The Mets are second. The Mets have scored enough runs to win a playoff spot. Once again, it is not the offenses fault.

The starting pitching has also been excellent. Santana has been the ace that everyone expected. Perez has had a fine year, so did Maine prior to his injury. Mike Pelfrey has been a joy to watch as he has developed into one of the fine pitchers in baseball.

It’s the bullpen. It’s always been the bullpen. In this era of baseball, if a team does not have a good bullpen, they simply are not going to win. It has been the bullpen for two years now and it’s why I think Omar Minaya’s job could be in jeopardy.

If the Mets do not make the playoffs, the Wilpons will be furious and rightfully so. Jeff and Fred will take a hard look at the structure of this club and ask some very serious questions. How is it GM Pat Gillick went to the Phillies after Omar took over the Mets and was able to construct a dependable bullpen? Because really folks, that’s the only difference between the Mets and Phillies, the bullpen.

I have hopefully made a good case that this year is not a collapse but it will be another failure of a season. With Shea closing, Citi Field opening, the Mets being the only baseball show in town for now, choking it away this season cannot be good for Minaya’s long term plans as Mets GM.

Tonight’s game becomes as crucial as it gets for the Mets. I personally feel the wild card is the only chance the Mets have to get to the playoffs. Why? The bullpen, that’s why.

The Phillies bullpen while not perfect is superior to the Mets. A slim lead is seldom lost by Philadelphia. And once the Phillies reach the ninth inning, it’s a lock. Brad Lidge has not blown a single save all season long. Do you really think, at home, the Phillies are going to falter against the Braves and the Nationals? Philadelphia’s combined record against Washington and Atlanta is 21-8. The Phillies will win the east barring a meltdown.

There is some good news already today. The Marlins lost a makeup game to Cincinnati this afternoon. That pushes the Marlins six games back in the loss column behind the Mets. However, with a tragic number of two, the Marlins are still going to try and knock out the Mets this weekend.

The only other game of consequence regarding the wild card is the Diamondbacks at St. Louis. The Cardinals also have a tragic number of two.

I know what you are saying. If the Phillies lose tonight and the Mets win, they will be tied in losses back for the division title. True, but I really don’t think over the course of these seven games, it’s going to matter.

Milwaukee does not play tonight. The Mets simply must win against the Cubs in the series opener beginning at 7:10. A loss tonight puts them just one game ahead of the Brewers in the loss column for the wild card lead. And it won’t be easy because the Mets are starting rookie Jon Neise. Neise pitched a great game against the Braves last week at Shea throwing eight scoreless innings. However, he was awful in Milwaukee earlier in the month where Jon could not even pitch five innings.

Mike Francesa continues to rant that Manuel should only get a contract if the Mets get to the post season. I totally disagree. He should get a contract regardless of what happened. Does anybody think the Mets would be where they are right now if Randolph was still managing the club? The person who should be on the hot seat is Omar Minaya who better figure out how to build a bullpen. Two years in a row now the Mets bullpen has been awful. That was not Randolph’s or Jerry’s doing.

The Cubs need one more win or a Phillie loss to guarantee home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Now who would the Cubs rather play in the first round, the Dodgers or the Mets? Philadelphia has already clinched a better record than the Dodgers so if Milwaukee wins the wild card the Cubs would play LA in the first round. If the Mets win the wild card, the Cubs would play the Mets with their awful bullpen. It’s almost a lock the Cubs would move on to the NLCS if they had to face the Mets. Just thinking out loud…

Realistically it’s looking like the Mets may have to focus on the wild card. Only one game out in losses with seven left to play does not mean the Mets can’t win the division. The problem is the Mets have no head to head games left with Philadelphia. While the Phillies now go home and play three games with Atlanta, the Mets will have to play four against the Cubs.

Starting tomorrow night at Shea Stadium, the Mets will conclude their home schedule. And for those that think the division champion Cubs are going to role over and let the Mets win do not know Lou Piniella. Sure, Lou is going to get his starters out at the end of five innings and he will rest some key players. But do you think he’s going to give these games away when the Mets could possible be facing the Cubs in the first round of the playoffs? These four games are going to be difficult.

Nothing is easy for the Mets. In today’s game in Atlanta, the Mets bullpen combined with an offense incapable of scoring tack on runs, threw yet another lead away. Nothing can be taken for granted during the Mets final seven games.

Here are the NL wild card standings for all teams mathematically alive:

Personally I think the Mets are going to need some help. It’s easy to say if the Mets can just go out and win every night, the rest will be taken care of. There are several factors that fly in the face of that philosophy. They are Aaron Heilman, Scott Schoeneweis, Pedro Feliciano, Brian Stokes, Luis Ayala, some times Joe Smith, Luis Castillo, and the middle of the lineup on many days with runners in scoring position. What confidence does any Mets fan have with these players or situations?

One thing that Jerry Manuel may have to do is rely on rookie Bobby Parnell out of the bullpen. It’s a tough task with so much riding on the line, but what choice does Manuel have. Parnell has allowed nothing in 1.2 innings. That certainly is not much of a resume but his 97 mile an hour fastball may be what Jerry needs to get some outs.

I think it’s important to realize the Mets may not make the playoffs. Even if they do, their stay in the post season will likely be short. But the one thing everyone needs to keep in mind, if the Mets do not make the playoffs, it will not be a collapse like last year. The Mets were never in any dominant position this season that losing out in the last week could be described as a collapse. They have been in and out of first place in the last couple of months. It has been a real dog fight. And in any dog fight, the toughest dog will prevail. That may not likely be the Mets.

The Mets have ten games left. When you look at the schedules of the National League teams scrambling for a post season birth, one thing is clear. The Mets have the toughest schedule compared to the Phillies and Brewers.

The Phillies toughest challenge will likely be this weekend as they play a series in Florida. The Marlins have won eight in a row. They are making a nice little run of their own. However, the odds are against Florida. They are 5.5 games behind Philadelphia with ten to play but I would not count them out. Also the Marlins are tied with Houston in the wild card hunt five games behind the Mets.

Once the Phillies are finished in Miami, they will have six games left in their regular season at home. The Phillies will play Atlanta for three then the Nationals for three. The Phillies have had their way with the Braves this season. In fifteen games played so far, the Phillies have won 13 while losing only 2. The two they lost were at home. Versus Florida, the Phillies are 6-9. So hopefully for the Mets, that trend will continue this weekend. Against the Nationals, the Phillies are 9-6.

The Brewers are in Cincinnati this weekend. Against the Reds, the Brewers are 7-8. Milwaukee finishes the season at Miller Park with three against the Pirates and three against the Chicago Cubs. Milwaukee is 11-1 vs. the Pirates this year. They are 5-8 against the Cubs.

The Mets have to play in Atlanta this weekend. While the Phillies are undefeated in Turner Field, the Mets are yet to win one game. The Braves’ home has once again become a house of horrors for the Mets. The Mets are going to have to figure out a way to win there. Coming away without a win in Atlanta this weekend would likely put the Mets in a hole that would be difficult to climb out of.

After the Braves, the Mets return home for the final home stand in Shea Stadium history. And it won’t be easy. The Mets will host the Chicago Cubs with four games in four nights. Now it’s likely the Cubs will have already clinched their division by then. At the moment, the Cubs magic number is two.

To finish the season, the Mets will end against the Marlins. It’s possible that could be a big series. The Marlins are red hot right now and are making a charge toward the wild card or division title. The Marlins play the Phillies this weekend, a make up game with Cincinnati, a three game series against the Nationals before ending at Shea.

Like the Marlins the Astros have an outside shot at the playoffs although they have struggled lately. The Astros play this weekend in Pittsburgh then finish the season at home versus the Reds and Braves. If necessary, the Astros will play a makeup game on the Monday following the season against the Cubs.

The Mets have their work cut out for them. Even though they are currently tied with Philadelphia in the loss column for the division lead and are ahead in the wild card by two games in the loss column, the Mets are going to have to defeat some ghosts of the past this weekend in Atlanta. Then they have a rough task against the Cubs, the leagues best team. Even though these games to Chicago will likely be meaningless, the Cubs are not just going to hand games over to the Mets. Then the Marlins would love nothing more than to knock off the Mets like they did last year during the final weekend.

Nothing has come easy for the Mets this season. Why would the last ten games be any different?

Next season the Mets will play the American League Eastern Division during inter-league play.

The Mets will play a weekend series at Boston’s Fenway Park on May 22-24. The Mets will also play two exhibition games against the Red Sox as they shake down brand new Citi Field on April 4-5, prior to opening day in Cincinnati.

The Mets will play their traditional road and away weekend series against the Yankees in June. The Mets will visit the new Yankee Stadium first on June 12-14. The Yanks get their first look at Citi Field two weeks later on June 26-28.

The Mets will also play the Tampa Bay Rays and the Baltimore Orioles. The Mets will go down to Baltimore to play in Oriole Park for three on June 16-18. The Rays will come to the Mets new home the next day for a weekend series on June 19-21.

The Mets will not play the Toronto Blue Jays this time around because of the two series against the Yankees.

Major League baseball has released their schedule the earliest ever. The schedules are not finalized. The times have not been added because the networks must figure out what games they intend to cover. For the complete Mets schedule for next year, visit Mets.com.

The reason the Mets traded four prospects and paid Johan Santana 137 million bucks was tomorrow night’s game. The Mets find themselves deadlocked with the Philadelphia Phillies at the top of the National League East entering tomorrow’s opening game of the home stand. Their opponent is none other than the Phillies. The winner of tomorrow’s game takes sole possession of first place and perhaps sends a message to the other team as to who is in charge.

Santana has pitched well for the Mets. Certainly his record should be better than 8-7. There were many games where the Mets scored little for the left hander. But that could be said for other Mets pitchers as well. The reason a team wants to acquire a pitcher of Santana’s caliber is that if the offense can only score a couple of runs, it should be enough to stand up. He is supposed to be the stopper. On paper you could not ask for it to be set up any better than it will be at Shea Stadium tomorrow night.

Last season during an interleague series with Minnesota at Shea Stadium, Santana totally dominated the Mets lineup shutting them out. We have not seen that Johan Santana yet. We’ve seen hints of him but not consistently. Hopefully the magnitude of tomorrow’s game will get Johan’s adrenalin pumping. So far in his Mets career, Santana has not pitched in a bigger game.

It seems odd but I will actually be rooting for the Braves tonight against the Marlins. While we all anticipate tomorrow evening's showdown between the Mets and Phillies, let’s not forget the Marlins are only 1/2 game behind both clubs. Everyone seems to agree the Marlins won’t be able to hang in there all season but they are still there with young pitching and hitting to boot.

The Mets have not lost a series vs. the Phillies this year. They are 7-3 vs. Philadelphia having won 3 of 4 in Philly which started off the 10 game winning streak. The Phillies have not been at Shea since the opening series that began on April 8th.

Isn't it time that El-Duque goes away now?

For a minute I though I was watching an Ulti-Met classic game from 2006 on SNY last night. But then I realized players like Johan Santana and Fernando Tatis were not on the team then. Last night’s inspiring come back win was the kind of game commonly seen on SNY and CW11 two years ago.

On a night when Santana clearly had nothing and the bullpen gave up their first runs in God knows how long, the Mets still managed to win. In fact, they won their 10th consecutive game one shy of the club record. A club record 11 games was first set in 1969 then repeated a couple times in subsequent years including 1986.

Prior to a just two weeks ago I was writing on how when the Mets hit they don’t pitch and when they pitch they don’t hit. Last night looked like the former but the difference this time was that the Mets hitters just kept on hitting. Twice the Mets fell behind. After Carlos Delgado hit a moon shot into the Ohio River, the Reds game back in their half and scored 5 runs taking a 5-2 lead. Then the Mets took the lead 6-5 in part due to another homerun by Fernando Tatis. What a God-send Tatis has been. After Heilman loaded the bases with two out in the sixth, Scott Schoeneweis cleared them. It looked as if the magic had worn off. It looked as if the winning streak would stop at 9.

The Doubting Thomases amongst the Mets faithful had to be wondering if here we go again. But the Mets led by David Wright in the 9th inning trailing 8-6 would not say die. After Argenis Reyes singled, Wright launched an opposite field shot into the bleachers out of the reach of Ken Griffey Jr. to tie the game. Four more hits in a row followed against Francisco Cordero, the Reds closer. The hits included an opposite field single from Delgado for his third hit of the night. That hit put the Mets ahead. Then Fernando Tatis doubled down the left field line adding an insurance run. All Star Billy Wagner set the Reds down 1-2-3 and as Wright said in a post game interview, the Mets stole won for their 10th in a row winning 10-8.

The Mets have not lost a game since the Fourth of July, two weeks ago today. During this streak the Mets have had tremendous pitching. But in some of the games, the pitching has not been so great and yet the Mets still found a way to win. In two games against the Phillies, one against the Giants, and last night’s game Mets hitters were able to comeback after giving up leads. This is a great sign because a winning team is not going to have fantastic starting pitching every night and they are not going to score 10 runs every night either. So when the hitting can compensate for bad pitching and the pitching can compensate for bad hitting, a lot of games will be won.

Perhaps the most important aspect of the Mets right now is there confidence. This is the way the Mets looked in 2006. You get the feeling watching the Mets that they simply believe they can win every game. Of course the big test will come when this winning streak comes to an end. With 66 games left that’s bound to happen. How the Mets react to losing a couple in a row may well determine their ability to be a playoff caliber team. For the moment the Mets are in a flat footed tie for first place with the Phillies at 52-44. The Mets have made up as much ground on the Phillies as the Phillies did against the Mets last September. But it’s way too early to be popping champagne corks. There is a ton of baseball left to play. However, the outlook now looks a lot better than it did just two weeks ago.

I’ve about had enough of the Yankees and Yankee Stadium. After a while the tributes and adulation poured out to that team and edifice in the Bronx is getting a bit sickening. I understand it. I get it that the Yankees are the premier franchise in baseball with all their championships. I get it that with all the history in their building or should I say buildings since the one the All Star game was held in last night was about as original as another hamburger chain. But please now, can you make it stop.

As a Mets fan, it gets a little tiring after awhile. And it did not help that the Mets contingent contributed just a bloop single and a blown lead. There is a way all this can change however. Believe it or not, the city could become a Mets town again. For that to happen, it will take dedication from the players, the GM, and ownership.

If the Mets can continue the roll they started in Philadelphia and make it back to the playoffs, it would go a long way to making us forget the collapse of last season. Mets fans could start to really feel good again. That was happening last season when the Mets were so close to winning their second consecutive division title. Then they took two steps back and the Yankees who struggled all season made the playoffs again. Just when you thought the tide was changing, that orange and blue was washing over the city, the Mets threw it all back into the Yankees lap.

For much of this season, it did not look like anything would change. The Mets struggled all season long. But this time so did the Yankees. However, the Mets with new manager Jerry Manuel seem to have found their identity. They have won 9 consecutive games leading into the break. The Yankees on the other hand continue to struggle. And although both teams have nearly the same record (Mets are 1 game better), the Mets appear poised to charge and it is unclear if the Yankees will have what it takes to make a run. I would never count them out but right now the Bombers have serious pitching and injury concerns. The team with a chance to grab the future is the Mets. When you think about it, last night’s Yankee love fest was really about the past more so than the future.

The Mets players seem to have gotten their act together. They certainly are playing a great brand of ball and look to be having fun doing so. As Carlos Beltran said the other day, they are taking the field believing they can win every day. That’s an important feeling a winning team must have.

Omar Minaya and the rest of management must continue to improve the club but they must do so smartly. The Mets do not have a wealth of talent at the minor leagues to trade for another big name player. Omar said the other day he can no longer make 4 for 1 deals. Because the Mets do not have tons of blue chips in waiting does not mean there are not players who can help. Minaya feels strongly that Nick Evans will develop into a good player. Evans has shown that he can hit at the big league level. He’ll never be a super star but could be a valuable role player. Then there is 19 year old Fernando Martinez who may make it to Shea later this year.

Management while wanting to win this year must keep an eye on the future. To recapture New York or at least to maintain a balance with the Yankees, the Mets need to find a way to be competitive year in and year out. What’s interesting, and perhaps a good sign, is that while all the hoopla this season about young pitchers was over in the Bronx, it has been Mike Pelfrey of the Mets who has delivered. And so has another young pitcher on the Mets, Joe Smith. Smith in time could become a home grown closer for the Mets. Don’t forget, Joe is still very young and is developing into an excellent reliever.  

Ownership must do a better job at promoting the Mets. There is no reason the closing of Shea Stadium should pale in comparison to that of Yankee Stadium. Shea is full of history. There have been many great moments that have happened in the Queens ballpark. What Yankee Stadium moment has been played more than Mookie Wilson’s ground ball that got by Buckner. The Mets should have scheduled a Shea Stadium day bringing back as many great Mets and others as possible in tribute to a building that was the ultimate reason National League baseball returned to New York. Without that structure, there would be no Mets. I know the Mets have not won as many championships as the Yankees, who doesn’t? But that does not mean we cannot celebrate our 2 World Series titles, 4 pennants, 6 division titles and 2 wild card entries.

What kills me is the argument that Shea is an ugly facility with no character. How does a building provide character? It’s what happens inside the building that builds character. Is Shea any less run down than Ebbets Field or the Polo Grounds was before they were torn down. Let me put my Mets bias aside for a second. As an objective fan of ballparks Shea is as well kept as Yankee Stadium. I go to both places. Yankee Stadium’s concourses and bathroom facilities are no cleaner than Shea’s. In fact they are both very acceptable. To cast aside Shea as just a dump with no reason for celebration is very unfair and frankly extremely insulting to Mets fans. Believe it or not, there are thousands upon thousands of fans that would rather spend an evening at Shea than at Yankee Stadium. Many of us will miss Shea Stadium. That’s the yard where we became fans. I wish Mets management understood that.

The swing back for New York to be a Mets town is long overdue. For too many years now the Mets and their fans have been treated as second class citizens. Jerry Manuel got it right and it’s probably why I like him as manger. He pulls no punches. I’ll paraphrase a few comments he said recently. He said the Mets are number 2 in New York and he likely took some heat for saying so. He also said “It’s simple. You want to be number 1? Go out and win a few championships, it’s that simple.” You know something? When the man is right, he’s right.