The Mets won 97 games and clinched the National League East. They compiled the best record in the National League; in fact they had the best record in the Major Leagues tied with the other team in
The first round of the playoffs, called the divisional series, is the toughest. It’s only five games. Three quick wins and your team moves on, three quick losses and your team goes home. The best record overall draws the wild card. This year the wild card is the Los Angeles Dodgers so that’s whom the Mets will face this afternoon at 4:09PM at Shea Stadium. Over the last four years, the wild card winner in one or both leagues has advanced to the second round of the playoffs. During that time two wild card teams won World Series championships. The Atlanta Braves, winners of the Eastern Division for 11 consecutive years, were defeated twice in the last two post seasons by the wild card winning Houston Astros. The 2004 Boston Red Sox, down 3 games to nothing in the ALCS came back against the Yankees and won the pennant and they did it as the wild card. The Sox then swept the Cardinals in the World Series. The last time both
Having won 97 games is no sure ticket beyond the division series for the Mets. In a short series, anything can happen. Generally the team with the better starting pitching will be the one that survives when the smoke clears. If you are a Mets fan like I am, that has to worry you. The Mets are headed into these playoffs with two starting pitchers over 40 and on the day before the playoffs start, Orlando Hernandez comes up with a calf injury that will likely prevent him from starting game 1. This news of course comes on the heels of learning that Pedro Martinez is gone till next July at the earliest. The injury to El-Duque is a huge blow, no question. The Mets most likely will send John Maine to the mound. He has had a decent rookie season this year but how will he perform in the spotlight of the post season? I’m not one for predicting outcomes for these playoffs, that’s why they play and I watch. But at least I can come up with reasons why the Mets will win the series…and reasons why they won’t.
Why the Mets will win:
From the beginning of spring training, the shortcomings of the Mets, all the critics said, was their starting rotation. They said this is where the Mets would falter and where they would lose out to other teams in the division even though they brought in the likes of Carlos Delgado and Paul Lo Duca. Then the Mets ran away and hid as they built a double digit lead by the middle of June. The pitching held up just fine even after a series of injuries to Brian Banister (hamstring), Victor Zambrano (elbow), John Maine (finger), Pedro Martinez (everything), and for a brief period of time Tom Glavine (shoulder). The starting pitching has been sound and the bullpen has been outstanding. Even with this most recent injury to El-Duque, don’t be surprised if whoever gets the ball for game one gets the job done. Mets pitchers have been stepping up all year. All the Mets starters must do is get through 5 or 6 innings then get the ball to the pen. The Mets record when leading after 6 innings this season is an astonishing 74 and 4, most of those wins can be attributed to the bullpen. Even after setup ace Duaner Sanchez went down, Aaron Heilman stepped up and pitched brilliantly in the eighth inning. Minaya went out and got Guillermo Mota who has been outstanding as well. Billy Wagner has been great in the second half of the season, one of the best closers in the game.
The offense has been magnificent. The Mets can beat you in so many ways. Jose Reyes is the Mets best weapon. When he is on base, things happen. Reyes helps the Mets offense generate many first inning runs. Lo Duca is a solid number 2 batter always making contact and at the very least capable of moving runners along. Then you get into the middle of that line up with Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, and David Wright. All three drove in over 100 runs, Beltran tied the Mets mark in homers with 41. Delgado hit 38 and Wright had 26. The bottom of the order is not easy either. Cliff Floyd in left, when healthy, can be a powerful presence. He has something to prove in the post season since his numbers dipped when compared to last year but he still is a dangerous hitter. Shawn Green has not been the player the Mets thought they were getting when obtained from
The Mets have a solid bench; Endy Chavez has simply been outstanding this year off the bench and filling in quite a bit for Cliff Floyd. He has speed on the bases and is probably the Mets best defensive outfielder and that is saying a lot when Carlos Beltran is patrolling center field. The Mets defensively are a better team than the Dodgers who have had their share of challenges on the field.
The Mets know how to win, they are coached well and Willie Randolph has been their pillar of support the entire season. He keeps the team focused never letting them get down or too impressed with themselves. As long as the Mets can continue to make things happen on the base paths and the pitchers can carry them to the later innings and turn things over to the pen, the Mets will be fine and probably can win this round in 4 games.
Why the Mets will lose:
The Dodgers starting pitching is superior to the Mets, plain and simple. Good pitching will always stop good hitting, especially in a short series. The Dodgers will be starting Derek Lowe who is a 16 game winner. In the second game they will send Hong-Chih Kuo to the mound who has a record of 1 and 5 but he stymied the Mets just three weeks ago shutting them out for 6 innings. He’s left handed and since the trade of Xavier Nady, whether coincidence or not, the Mets do not hit left handed pitching well. Grady Little has read the scouting reports and figures he can possible pull off a sweep at Shea with Lowe and Kuo. Even if the Dodgers win one game, they will head back to LA with Greg Maddux in game three then they can pitch Brad Penny, providing his back is okay, on Sunday if necessary or even come back on short rest with Lowe. Most experts feel the Mets bullpen is better but the Dodgers have a strong pen also with some very hard throwers. Closer Takashi Saito has 24 saves and has done a decent job for LA with a 2.04 ERA.
The Dodgers have good hitting as well. They don’t have the power numbers the Mets have but the Dodgers have scored almost as many runs. This points out that they are capable of scoring a lot of runs without the long ball. Nomar Garciaparra has had a great year and don’t forget Jeff Kent at second (who would love to beat the Mets), J. D. Drew in right, Rafael Furcal at short and Julio
What we hope for:
As Mets fans we have to hope the Mets show up with their dynamic offense. Their pitching is adequate, more than enough to win but in order for the Mets to be successful; the offense must score early and keep the pressure on the Dodgers hurlers and defenders. That’s the formula for success in this series; it’s the formula they have used all year to get here. Let the battle begin.
